After the Revolution

It seems Vladimir Putin was right. Then again, as illustrated by Russia’s recent presidential election, he’s not averse to stacking the cards to prove his point.

Yesterday the parliament of Abkhazia, one of Georgia’s two breakaway republics, declared its independence to the international community.

The day before, Russia had announced it would lift trade restrictions to the province.

Wouldn’t you know it, that same day Georgia’s other breakaway republic, South Ossetia, also declared its independence.

The Russian Foreign Ministry’s explanation for the move does make some sense. Russia imposed trade sanctions in the first place in order to quash Abkhazia’s separatist aspirations in 1996.

But the restrictions seem to have had little effect. So why continue to block business?

Let’s look at some more recent news.

Putin said his reasoning for not recognizing the recently declared independence of Kosovo was that it might cause a ripple effect – encouraging other breakaway states to declare their independence. [see previous entry]

Now after last week’s events in Georgia, all he can say is: Told ya so.

Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia argued that Kosovo set a precedent for their independence.

So what if they needed a little encouragement?

Georgia’s foreign ministry said Russia’s withdrawal of sanctions would allow Putin to offer military assistance to the rebellious province, according to an article in the Georgian Times.

According to the foreign ministry:

“The move cannot be seen other than as a clear attempt to undermine Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity and a very dangerous provocation aimed at fueling tension in the conflict zone.” 

The speaker for Georgia’s parliament told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty that she saw the move as a step toward Russian annexation of Abkhazia.

Residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia already carry Russian passports, use Russian currency and even voted in Russia’s presidential election. Each gave about 90 percent of votes to Putin’s candidate, winner Dmitry Medvedev.

But beyond that, the Georgian speaker saw the timing of Russia’s lifting of trade sanctions as significant – this is happening right as NATO is debating whether or not to start Georgia on a path to membership.

Russia should not forget, however, that Georgia holds veto power over Russia’s possible future membership in the World Trade Organization. [see previous entry]