After the Revolution

All that waving of American flags, and the best George Bush can give Kosovo is an adjective.

Today Bush called Kosovo’s people “independent” but stopped short of officially recognizing Kosovo as an independent state.

This doesn’t mean that Bush refuses to recognize Kosovo officially, but it might have something to do with the European Union’s failure to take an official position on Kosovo’s declaration of independence.

Led by Spain, a country long plagued by separatist issues of its own, several EU nations raised concerns about the possible effects of recognizing Kosovo.

Kosovo declared its independence yesterday in defiance of Serbia.

The BBC posted the opinions of Serbs and Albanians living in Kosovo here.

Countries including Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia fear that Kosovo’s success could inspire other provinces and minority ethnic groups interested in redrawing the map. China has taken up with this camp.

France, Germany, Italy and Britain have argued that Kosovo is distinct from other breakaway republics and that recognizing its sovereignty will not set off a cascade of independence movements.

Russia has made the ripple-effect argument perhaps more forcefully than any other nation.

However, Russia is one of the few countries to recognize the breakaway republics of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia has offered citizenship to the residents of these provinces. Why not support their independence?

The blog Steady State offers this explanation:

In fact, for Russia Abkhazia and South Ossetia are more beneficial as they are right now — unrecognized breakaway states.

If for instance they do get independence, then similarly Chechens, Ingush and other ‘peoples’ living in Russian part of the Caucasus, could argue for ‘Abkhazia’s precedent’ — although improbable, but conceptually very possible thing to happen.

Moreover, for Russia Abkhazia and South Ossetia are very good bargaining chips against Georgia, and with their independence, they would lose their value.